What is a prediction market basket?
A prediction market basket brings several market outcomes together around one theme. Instead of choosing one event, you inspect a set of related outcomes and the weight assigned to each. Measurement Finance organizes these themes into trends, with a basket for each of two opposing views.
A trend is the subject you follow. A view expresses a directional thesis about that subject. The basket is the maintained set of market positions for that view. A position is what you actually own after funding a basket. These names describe different parts of the same experience.
From a theme to market holdings
An interest-rate trend, for example, can bring together markets about related monetary-policy decisions. Its two views may express faster or slower cuts. When available, the examples below link to the current published names of both views. They illustrate the product rather than recommend a basket.
Inside a basket, factors group markets that help explain part of the theme. Current Composition shows the actual members and their weights. Open a market's source link to read its own event and resolution conditions: markets in the same theme can still ask different questions and settle at different times.
What makes the basket maintained?
The basket can add markets, remove markets or change their weights as the theme develops. Each published composition version preserves a dated basket state. Earlier versions remain available for historical analysis; they are not a separate basket you can buy today.
Read the selected view, its current members and the chart's time window together. A broad theme does not remove the risks of its underlying markets, and several related outcomes can move against your view at once.
Read a live example
Inspect the current published baskets. These examples update with the trends available on Measurement Finance.
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US Crypto Regulatory Direction
Tracks the direction of US federal crypto regulation — legislation, enforcement, federal adoption, and tax treatment — as the policy landscape evolves.
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US Fed Policy Stance
Tracks the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance — the market-priced balance between easing and tightening — across current and future FOMC rate decisions.
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AC Milan Competitive Strength
Tracks AC Milan's competitive strength: Serie A results, league standing, European trophies, and individual honours, across current and future seasons.