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OpenAI and Anthropic logos representing the rivalry between the two leading AI frontier labs

OpenAI vs Anthropic Rivalry

15 markets curated fromRebalanced 9h ago

Performance is chain-linked across 51 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-10-27

Factors

OpenAI Model Leadership

Benchmark wins and on-time GPT-6 progress support the OpenAI side.

Holds No 2 markets
10.1%Weight
Anthropic Model Leadership

Claude benchmark wins and strong arena debuts favor the Anthropic side.

Holds Yes 1 market
7.5%Weight
OpenAI Valuation Upside

OpenAI reaching higher valuation brackets strengthens the OpenAI side.

Holds Yes 1 market
5.3%Weight
Anthropic Gains / OpenAI Setbacks

Anthropic valuation gains or OpenAI setbacks such as a CEO ouster favor Anthropic.

Holds Yes 4 markets
19.1%Weight
OpenAI IPO Race

OpenAI going public on schedule supports the OpenAI side.

Holds No 1 market
9.0%Weight
Anthropic IPO Race

Anthropic going public sooner — or beating OpenAI to it — favors Anthropic.

Holds Yes 2 markets
11.8%Weight
OpenAI Favorable Signals

OpenAI-favorable readings, including Anthropic's valuation sliding lower.

Holds No 4 markets
37.1%Weight

Change History

Every change to this basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. weights adjusted · 15 markets
  2. 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 15 markets
  3. 2 markets removed · weights adjusted · 16 markets
  4. 1 market removed · resolved markets paid out and left · 18 markets
  5. Daily change · 1 market added · 2 markets removed · weights adjusted · 19 markets
  6. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 19 markets
  7. Daily change · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 20 markets
  8. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 20 markets
  9. Daily change · 2 markets added · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 21 markets
  10. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 21 markets
  11. Daily change · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 20 markets
  12. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 20 markets

Showing the 12 most recent of 50 changes. The full record is in the Updates tab.