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OpenAI and Anthropic logos representing the rivalry between the two leading AI frontier labs

OpenAI vs Anthropic Rivalry

17 markets curated fromRebalanced 4d ago

Performance is chain-linked across 32 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the Trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and Factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The Basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-09-12

Factors

OpenAI Model Leadership

Benchmark wins and on-time GPT-6 progress support the OpenAI side.

Holds Yes 3 markets
17.3%weight
Anthropic Model Leadership

Claude benchmark wins and strong arena debuts favor the Anthropic side.

Holds No 2 markets
16.4%weight
OpenAI Valuation Upside

OpenAI reaching higher valuation brackets strengthens the OpenAI side.

Holds Yes 3 markets
15.2%weight
Anthropic Gains / OpenAI Setbacks

Anthropic valuation gains or OpenAI setbacks such as a CEO ouster favor Anthropic.

Holds No 5 markets
22.0%weight
OpenAI IPO Race

OpenAI going public on schedule supports the OpenAI side.

Holds Yes 1 market
8.3%weight
Anthropic IPO Race

Anthropic going public sooner — or beating OpenAI to it — favors Anthropic.

Holds No 2 markets
14.1%weight
OpenAI Favorable Signals

OpenAI-favorable readings, including Anthropic's valuation sliding lower.

Holds Yes 1 market
6.7%weight

Change History

Every change to this Basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. 3 markets added · 7 markets removed · weights adjusted · 17 markets
  2. 12 markets added · 16 markets removed · 2 markets moved to a different Factor · weights adjusted · 16 markets
  3. 1 market removed · resolved markets paid out and left · 16 markets
  4. 6 markets added · 12 markets removed · 1 market changed side · 2 markets moved to a different Factor · weights adjusted · 18 markets
  5. 1 market removed · resolved markets paid out and left · 17 markets
  6. 11 markets added · 14 markets removed · weights adjusted · 18 markets
  7. 9 markets added · 10 markets removed · weights adjusted
  8. 19 markets added · 19 markets removed · weights adjusted
  9. 4 markets added · 5 markets removed · weights adjusted
  10. 24 markets added · 28 markets removed · weights adjusted
  11. 1 market removed · resolved markets paid out and left
  12. 10 markets added · 11 markets removed · weights adjusted

Showing the 12 most recent of 31 changes. The full record is in the Updates tab.