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US Senate Partisan Balance theme image

US Senate Partisan Balance

13 markets curated fromRebalanced 40m ago

Performance is chain-linked across 21 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-10-27

Factors

Senate Control & Seats

Which party controls the chamber and how many seats Republicans win each election.

Holds No 1 market
38.3%Weight
2026 Senate Races

State-by-state Senate contests up in the midterms, read by which party wins each seat.

Holds No 11 markets
45.6%Weight
Low GOP Seat Count

Pays out if the GOP is held to a small seat count.

Holds Yes 1 market
16.2%Weight

Change History

Every change to this basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. 1 market added · weights adjusted · 13 markets
  2. 1 market added · weights adjusted · 12 markets
  3. weights adjusted · 11 markets
  4. No membership change · 11 markets
  5. 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 11 markets
  6. 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 12 markets
  7. Daily change · 1 market added · weights adjusted · 13 markets
  8. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 13 markets
  9. 1 market added · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 12 markets
  10. Daily change · 2 markets removed · weights adjusted · 12 markets
  11. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 12 markets
  12. Daily change · 5 markets removed · weights adjusted · 14 markets

Showing the 12 most recent of 20 changes. The full record is in the Updates tab.