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Iran Conflict Intensity

25 markets curated fromRebalanced 5h ago

Performance is chain-linked across 13 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the Trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and Factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The Basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-09-12

Factors

Direct military conflict

Kinetic conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel — strikes, invasions, and war declarations.

Holds No 3 markets
20.0%weight
Nuclear breakout

Whether Iran crosses the nuclear threshold — breakout and weaponization.

Holds No 1 market
6.4%weight
Oil & Hormuz disruption

Disruption to Iranian oil infrastructure, Hormuz shipping, and crude prices.

Holds No 4 markets
15.3%weight
Regime instability

Stress on the Iranian regime — collapse, coup, and leadership change.

Holds No 5 markets
22.6%weight
De-escalation & diplomacy

Diplomatic off-ramps — ceasefires, normal Hormuz traffic, and restored relations.

Holds Yes 10 markets
27.0%weight
US pressure & sanctions

Coercive pressure on Iran — new sanctions and negotiation breakdowns.

Holds No 1 market
3.5%weight
Proxy-front conflict

Proxy attacks and responses across Lebanon, Yemen, and Red Sea shipping.

Holds No 1 market
5.1%weight

Change History

Every change to this Basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. 11 markets added · 9 markets removed · weights adjusted · 25 markets
  2. 11 markets added · 11 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  3. 10 markets added · 12 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  4. 22 markets added · 25 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  5. 3 markets added · 5 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  6. 16 markets added · 19 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  7. 4 markets added · 4 markets removed · weights adjusted · 23 markets
  8. 12 markets added · 13 markets removed · weights adjusted · 21 markets
  9. 2 markets added · 3 markets removed · weights adjusted · 20 markets
  10. 20 markets added · 20 markets removed · weights adjusted · 21 markets
  11. 7 markets added · 11 markets removed · weights adjusted · 20 markets
  12. 60 markets added · 75 markets removed · weights adjusted · 24 markets

Showing the 12 most recent of 13 changes. The full record is in the Updates tab.