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China-US Bilateral Relationship theme image

China-US Bilateral Relationship

16 markets curated fromRebalanced 27d ago

Performance is chain-linked across 13 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-10-27

Factors

Taiwan Strait

Cross-strait tensions and the depth of US-Taiwan official engagement.

Holds Yes 7 markets
56.5%Weight
Military Confrontation

Direct armed confrontation between US and Chinese forces.

Holds Yes 1 market
9.6%Weight
Trade & Tariffs

The path of tariff disputes and the prospects for a trade deal.

Holds No 1 market
2.3%Weight
Tech Controls

US restrictions on Chinese technology and AI access.

Holds Yes 1 market
3.8%Weight
Entity-List Sanctions

Expansion of US sanctions lists against Chinese companies.

Holds Yes 4 markets
14.7%Weight
Diplomacy

High-level engagement between the two governments.

Holds No 1 market
10.6%Weight
Tariff Escalation

Holds Yes 1 market
2.3%Weight

Change History

Every change to this basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. Daily change · 1 market added · weights adjusted · 16 markets
  2. Factors changed · weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 16 markets
  3. 5 markets added · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 15 markets
  4. 3 markets removed · resolved markets paid out and left · 11 markets
  5. No membership change · 14 markets
  6. Daily change · 3 markets added · 3 markets removed · weights adjusted · 14 markets
  7. Membership not separately itemized · 14 markets
  8. weights adjusted · Membership not separately itemized · 14 markets
  9. resolved markets paid out and left · Membership not separately itemized · 14 markets
  10. No membership change · 14 markets
  11. 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 14 markets
  12. 2 markets added · weights adjusted · 15 markets

Showing the 12 most recent of 13 changes. The full record is in the Updates tab.