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China-US Bilateral Relationship theme image

China-US Bilateral Relationship

14 markets curated fromRebalanced 9d ago

Performance is chain-linked across 3 basket versions to preserve a continuous price history.

How a Basket Is Managed

Curated
Qualified Polymarket events are included to reflect the direction of the Trend.
Weighted
Curated events get weights based on liquidity, correlation and Factor representation.
Monitored
Basket members and other relevant markets are monitored continuously for needed adjustments.
Rebalanced
The Basket automatically adds, removes, or reweights events over time to best track the topic.
As of 2026-09-12

Factors

Taiwan Strait

Cross-strait tensions and the depth of US-Taiwan official engagement.

Holds Yes 8 markets
55.2%weight
Military Confrontation

Direct armed confrontation between US and Chinese forces.

Holds Yes 1 market
8.7%weight
Trade & Tariffs

The path of tariff disputes and the prospects for a trade deal.

Holds No 1 market
13.1%weight
Tech Controls

US restrictions on Chinese technology and AI access.

Holds Yes 1 market
3.8%weight
Entity-List Sanctions

Expansion of US sanctions lists against Chinese companies.

Holds Yes 2 markets
9.1%weight
Diplomacy

High-level engagement between the two governments.

Holds No 1 market
10.1%weight

Change History

Every change to this Basket is dated. Past compositions are read-only — they stay readable and are never buyable.

  1. 1 market added · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 14 markets
  2. 2 markets added · 1 market removed · weights adjusted · 15 markets
  3. Basket created · 13 markets